Thursday, June 14, 2007

"You are not, you are not, not alone" - The Police

Well I feel alone! Market is ever more bullish day by day. I have the sense of giving up and going long the whole market and just join the "no worries" camp.

Yes, fixed income have rebounded, the 10-year yield is down from 5.30+ but its still up more than 40 bps in the last one month.

The Central Banks continues to hike, today Swiss National Bank move rate 25 bp and move up their inflation expectations, but still no one cares.

The think to watch today is the reaction to Goldman Sachs trading - they report better than expected earnings but in pre-markets the stock is down a 2.0-2.5% @ 228 from 233.64 close. Why? Only the Gods knows, but GS impact on S&P Index is pretty large as seen in the below chart.

Table I: Goldman Sachs & S&P cash index


I am hard at work at designing new monetary index, which includes todays new "liquidity" generators, credit derivatives and similar structures.

I can not put firm, factual gauge on it, but I am getting feeling the move in the long end of the curve is having some pretty dramatic impacts on the credit culture or the lack of it.

There is need to monitor the policy makers steps on private equity, hedge funds, credit policies etc. Most major changes in the market direction is driven from these policies, or rather the mistakes they create.

Yesterday's bill from senior Senators on China is one of those things which seems to finally get some political traction, if so... it could make world very different place.

CPI next market taking a slow day but keep close eye on Goldman Sachs.

The fund:

YTD: +105 bp, MTD: +76 bp,

Market Bias:

FX: Long US vs NZD, AUD and EUR

Fixed Income: Neutral from short.

Equities: Net short S&P again from 1530.50 with one ATR stop

Options: Very long JPY calls - and VERY wrong..

Steen

2 comments:

Agustin said...

Steen. FYI, we have developed several liquidity indexes at the Global Liquidity Blog (www.liquidityblog.blogspot.com). On of them --the Endogenous Liquidity Index-- is designed to capture the impact of market volatility, CDS spreads, high-yield bond spreads, and the carry trade. Regards, Agustin Mackinlay.

Amie said...

The Orange County equity investment Firm invests in network-enabled service companies, specifically those that leverage networks to enable communication, deliver content and facilitate commerce. Meritage is stage-agnostic; seeking opportunities where the Firm's operating expertise and sector knowledge can guide the strategic direction of its portfolio companies and create sustainable value.