Tuesday, September 25, 2007

US dollar is the worst over? 2000 revisited?

....a while back we did some test of one currency pair leading another, which is extremely difficult math-exercise, the only thing we did find was that EURAUD, leads EURUSD.... in high frequency...

then now... I am noting NZD+AUD reacting a little this morning and made enclosed chart.. which is merely.. aud+nzd divided by 2... and eurusd in same chart... is this sign of top in place /

I know evert bank in the world falling overthemselves to put EURUSD outlook higher but........

1. European investors still got issue funding their US assets, maybe they need to take those USD into EUR soon ?

2. US fixed income extremely cheap in currency adjusted basis, plus from mean rever. perspective its cheap..

3.Seems to me there is more CREDIT NEGATIVE news coming from Europe than US recently,..

4. ECB is stubbornly looking for higher rates while consumer sentiment, credit conditions CLEARLY showing risk of more neg. growth..

5. UK is mess, post BOE and Government bail-out... 5. 1.42 1.43 always been touchy area for politicians....

6. EURUSD was .8600 in 2000... now 1.4200 ??? I remember destinctly how NO ONE wanted EURO then, this is the same US momement in my always naive farmers opinion... Steen

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