Big day for stock market today - in the REAL session, i.e 15.30 CET 22.00 CET - Why?
Technically this is 4th wave bounce - and major resistance @ 1400 which we are almost trading in time of writing - break wud invalidate count - and more to the point there
is growing belief Bernanke has done enough to restart US economy plus the added fiscal stimulus from Congress -- it cud mean a few more days of rallying... I remain as always sceptical, but remain long some March 1410 calls - Which I have had for a while, but.....
IF market is turning we need CLEAR confirmation in 10 and 30y yield in the US, despite rebound in US stock market 30y and 10y remain elevated in price - barely moving, this despite stronger 1y fwd yield.... so either... Fixed Income is too negative or the usual stock momentum will carry us higher.
The numbers on Friday was a disaster no less, no more, but for now market seems to keen to play recoupling ( vs Europe and rest of world)
BOE will cut 50 bps
ECB will be unchanged this week
Monoline bail-out will most likely run into some "issues" as market improves
There will be negative returns for hedge funds again in January........
Nice day
Steen
Technically this is 4th wave bounce - and major resistance @ 1400 which we are almost trading in time of writing - break wud invalidate count - and more to the point there
is growing belief Bernanke has done enough to restart US economy plus the added fiscal stimulus from Congress -- it cud mean a few more days of rallying... I remain as always sceptical, but remain long some March 1410 calls - Which I have had for a while, but.....
IF market is turning we need CLEAR confirmation in 10 and 30y yield in the US, despite rebound in US stock market 30y and 10y remain elevated in price - barely moving, this despite stronger 1y fwd yield.... so either... Fixed Income is too negative or the usual stock momentum will carry us higher.
The numbers on Friday was a disaster no less, no more, but for now market seems to keen to play recoupling ( vs Europe and rest of world)
BOE will cut 50 bps
ECB will be unchanged this week
Monoline bail-out will most likely run into some "issues" as market improves
There will be negative returns for hedge funds again in January........
Nice day
Steen
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