Friday, September 19, 2008

Illusion is the first of all pleasures. - Oscar Wilde

Dear Mr. Paulson,

You are not fooling me - you may fool the market but not me!

Take 100s of billions of"toxic waste"from private sector and move them into the public sector and you still got billisions of toxic waste.

Only difference is the debt is now financed by a currency upon it reads: "in God we trust" - ergo the only colleteral value is the blessing of God

Please do not issue Jihad or similar on me for talking about God - I admit I am a total ignorant in everything religious having grown up in the Land of Free Porn!)

The Resolution trust is one step forward - if - you want to spend tax payers money - certainly beat propping up US investment banks........but as they say in German: "aber dabei....."

- The mess left by Lehman going bankrupt is still being felt in the micro-world of PrimeBrokerage....

- There seems to be issues with margin payments across different counterparties..... everything is a mess. (No wonder with minimum two new GOVERNMENT bail-outs per day!)

- The Democrats will work for: plan which safeguard Main street from Wall Street.. (Pelosi)

Even this "hard" working fund manager is somewhat at loss keeping up with the breaking news, but apart from this being more dramatic than ERM crisis in 1992 - then at least we knew when Bank of England broke everything was going to be over....)..... -this crisis has so many dimensions that I must/should/could write a book about it.

At the centre of this book would be: Greed is good, too much greed is very bad.

Gordon Gekko was wrong in The Wall Street movie... Greed is not good in the Investment banking sense as it covers for unlimited upside bonus' with limited down-side (read ZERO) impact on the CEO and headless Powerpoint producing salespeople selling deep-out-the-money strategies for in-the-money prices.

I am now more than crisis fatique - I am constructively fed up - thinking about closing down (and for the record I am up on month and year)..... and come back when Paulson and the other Socialist' are done writing cheques which certainly will bounce next year.

My good friend Scott made me smile - and it's so accurate to:

*BN 12:29 *TREASURY SAYS PLAN TO GUARANTEE NICE WEATHER FOREVER
*BN 12:29 *U.S. TREASURY TO INSURE PERSONAL HAPPINESS
*BN 12:29 *TREASURY TO USE UP MY TAX MONEY

Strategy:

We went 98% cash yday - only keeping very small options in place.... today (despite Friday being amateur day) we again went short:

Cash 80%
Short stocks 10%
Short US dollar; Long EUR and CHF: 10%

Keep safe everyone - this is the worst market conditions I have EVER seen and for those of you who havent met me... I don't have a lot of hair.... on that cheery note:

Happy week-end

Steen

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all of your reassuring comments on the market, Steen, I still have all of my hair...but it seems to have gone all white. I do have a question...what happens to the unmargined investments of those of us in shaky banks like Smith Barney or other, if they go bankrupt? Do we risk losing the lot even though our stock position remains solid? Are the insurance positions different from bank to bank? Should the rest of us be similarly liquidating our positions to cash and wait for the crash to then cruise back in & buy at bargain prices? Are you anticipating such an occurrence? How do you sleep at night? I am keeping the local pharmacy in the black of late! Regards, Velupta

Saxo Macro said...

The best response I can give is to listen to this link I enclosed today.....I am more scared about the future than any time in my life. Sorry to feel that way.
Steen