Thursday, September 25, 2008

When it is time, it is time....

There is 90 pct chance the plan will be approved today or tomorrow.

The plan is still inconsistent and non-transperent but......I have covered all my short yesterday around 1185-1190 and increased my short US dollar position.

I see Q4 rally based on shortage in stocks - sell ban/long cash and oversupply in bonds....the 'price' will be paid in early 2009 where the mix of the plan, a new president, 8 pct yield will kill growth and margins.

Long t-bonds put, short us dollars vs euro, short eurchf......buying small upside stocks today.....biggest move could be long-end treasuries....

I am in Dublin Ireland so short note this morning;

I will finish with great qoute from marc faber(thkx jacob);

Investment analyst and entrepreneur Dr. Marc Faber concluded his monthly bulletin (June 2008) with the Following:

''The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala.
If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy.
The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part.'

Good day,


Anonymous said...

Mr J, You remark often on EUR,USD,CHF,JPY and other currencies. What is your position on the GBP vs EUR and the GBP vs USD and should we be shorting the GBP? Enjoy Dublin and have a beer for the rest of us craving some solace in alcohol if not the other vices that Faber prefers.

Anonymous said...

Enjoy reading your blog, but the incessant America bashing is quite annoying, and frankly offensive to Americans. Nobody is happy about what is going on now, Japanese and the Asian Tigers weren't in 1998, Swedes weren't in 1992, and Chinese weren't in 2004 in their crises and subsequent bailouts. Unfortunately, we are where we are and the system will cease to function if nothing is done. What's done is done, and we have to look forward and then reflect on how to stop this from happening again. The bright side of all this is that it probably will wake up Americans to not spend more than they consume and wake up creditors to not let us borrow forever because they want to keep their mercantilist pegs and subsidize exporters.

And as far as America not making anything, you are just spouting the typical ignorant European/economist view: everything you use right now for your job is probably produced in America: your Bloomberg terminal, Microsoft Windows OS/Excel, your Sun Workstation, Intel Pentium Chip, and your Eurodollar futures (pioneered in US, copied by rest of world). Oh yeah, your chair is made in China, wow they are the powerhouse. I will put up United Technologies, Caterpillar, and GE up against any European and Asian industrial company; Apple, Google, and Microsoft against and tech company; Pfizer ahead of any pharma; and Goldman/Renaissance/JPM/Citadel against and bank/financial/fund in the world. Americans have made mistakes and are paying for them, but we are still the most entrepreneurial, dynamic, flexible, and innovative economy in the world. So get of your high-horse you arrogant European because you'd all be speaking German if it werent' for us.

Saxo Macro said...

Do not take it personal ;) If you really read my blogs you would know its far from America bashing, rather its Wall Street bashing - big difference. Stay safe. Best wishes.