Monday, October 6, 2008

Monday, Monday, .......Midday update

Classic fund manager dilemma - although this is not like anything I have seen before in my career, I feel tempted to go square from short everything more on a gut feeling than anything else - and trust me gut feelings are overrated so I will stick to our key targets (see below)

Massive rate cuts are coming - maybe even before the open today or tomorrow open - The authorities thinks in steps:

1. Bail-out

2. Rate cuts

3. Direct intervention (in bonds and stocks)....

We did step 1.) now and step 2.) is coming if not working either - we will move to step 3.) which will be unprecedented in Europe & North America but not in Asia....

The reaction off rate cuts could be: 2 min.'s rally or a longer bounce based on cheaper funding - there may still be pockets of desperation but it will be cheaper.....


I maintain as per my blog Friday - merely refinancing/bailing-out mortgage portion of risk will only help temporarily - We know the banks are "misrepresenting" the trust, this morning papers full of how Lehman told the less than honest truth about their true need of capital.

Direction key determinator will be bond market, and probably Bunds... if we are going to see action 2.) and 3.) we need furhter flight to quality.


Statewide banking guarantees - well ,well, it will not work - when everybody does the "arbitrage" goes away, its against EU regulation, it increases financial long-term burden(more debt), Widens funding rates for governments(through higher bonds premium) and it floats capital market with bonds..... Ergo: back to square one... but it does mean banks can keep their depositors, it also ironically means there is LESS CHANCE of bail-out for next bank in trouble - as the customers are already safed, why safe the bank frame-work?


Short-selling ban will by "law" disappear three days after President sign bail-out into law - Will be interesting - my estimate it will increase liquidity and get volatility back down, plus obvisously take CDS spreads down, as they have been the short financial proxy of choice.

Strategy:

Cash 90% - now, +5%
Small long US dollars versus EUR
Was small short european stocks - but awaiting resolution on rates...
Long Dec - EDZ
Long CHF vs GBP options
Small, small upside option on stocks...

We are entering the acceleration part of this market, one which creates more losers than winners...........I am keeping my powder dry - awaiting better risk/reward.

Our KEY targets remains:

S&P 867-00 (Was 1100 untill early August)
EUR 1.3500 - almost reached, we move it down to 1.30000
Yield 10 yr - when the US dollar hoarding done we expect the final bubble of this cycle: low interest rates to start playing for real. We see LT rates in the US in 8-10% in 2009....
GOLD --- 1000 US Dollars
Crude- 80-100 for balance of this crisis, then 200 US Dollars next year.

Trade smaller size, be active, be prudent, listen not to what they say, but observe what they do....

Steen

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Using option 3) will strike a blow to the foundations of democracy. I'm upset that a crisis is used as a pretext to throw common sense out and to implement dysfunctional legislation. Things are getting more and more opaque and random.

#2) is a must but I don't see it help much. Counterparty risk will not be helped at all.

Saxo Macro said...

I agree, but we are dealing with politicians, they will do ANYTHING to stop this....even risking society...