Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Once I make up my mind, I'm full of indecision. Oscar Lavant

Sorry dear readers been trying to start on this blog like 50 times this week alone, but I am "sucked" out of anything intelligent to say it in this January madness, but a few things:


  • Tactical change in S&P 500. We came into this year as everyone else pretty bullish buying the Obama effect - being scared of all the money the US will spend et al, but our technical model indicated strong risk and hence we change the risk to NET SHORT S&P via 870 put in Feb @ 27 $ & net long 850 March @ 33 with spot reference 935-00.

Click on chart to get bigger version



  • Tactical change in EUR/USD. Similar argument purely short-term on tech. picture with 1.3800 now top formation and stop loss level....and with massive improvement in terms of trade and EURO soon going into negative spin....I feel short EUR worth it while from here (@ 1.3710) .... short cash and long some 3week options EUR p)

My dominant "theme" is sceptisme to all the bullish interpretations being delivered to me from all sources - if Obama and his plan was this good why is S&P then unchanged on the first 5 days of trading ? Do we not pride ourselves of being ahead of the curve? Or rather ahead of the positive thinking?

Unemployment will play big this year - not as in tomorrrow numbers but it will main theme for: People losing their jobs, politicians, police (social unrest?), central bankers (who shouldt keep their jobs) and media. Market is still too complacent on where we go from here, but more on this tomorrow.......

A sick - yes this time for real Jakobsen signs off...

Steen

4 comments:

RisRas said...

Dear Steen,

Happy New Year! You mention a tactical change in S&P500; net short S&P500 via 870 put in February at 27$, that one I believe I understand. But net long 850 March at 33$, how is that possible with spot reference 930?
All the best,
Erik Rasmussen

RisRas said...

Dear Steen,

Happy New Year! You mention a tactical change in S&P500; net short S&P500 via 870 put in February at 27$, that one I believe I understand. But net long 850 March at 33$, how is that possible with spot reference 930?
All the best,
Erik Rasmussen

  said...

Hi Erik,

What we did was:

We bought 870 Feb PUT and bought 850 March puts... ergo..buying both... spot reference was 935.00 to be exact.... I got these live on, although my execution desk did them not me personally...we paid: 870 23.5 $ and 850 30 $.... right now they are worth..(Friday close) 38 3/4 & 45.5

Steen

RisRas said...

Hi Steen,
Okay, got it. My first reading was that you were long SP500 March 850 at 33 and there I couldnt get the math in place.
We are short from 925 - so leave us a not when we hit the bottom :-)
Erik