Wednesday, February 18, 2009

I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency, even if I'm in a cabinet meeting. Ronal Reagan

Good friend of mine gave me "Reagan's path to Victory" (http://tinyurl.com/cena6b) as parting gift. Never have Reagan been more relevant:

1. We have a President O who publicly have said he wants to mold his Presidency after Reagan. (But unlike Reagan all he does is talk, talk and more talk)

2. Reagan was always belittled intellectually, where as Obama probably gets more credit than he deserves. (Where is he on ANY key issues - except on the "voters" side?)

3. I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency, even if I'm in a cabinet meeting. If there is one time where the new "Reagan" (Prez O) needs to awakened its now! He is getting bad advice, old advice and his hangers on in Cabinet is fast asleep at the wheel and even formed NY Fed Governor Geithner has managed to lose Fed's support - Great work!

Less than two month ago the Motor City said they only needed 15 bln. US Dollar to safe their bacon - now they are back with cap in hand and asking for longer pay-back time plus more money - nice one - who did not see this coming ? Let me see? All of the always bullish crowd and ALL of Washington.

The politicians in Washington should be ashamed of themselves - they sit a tirade and parades bank CEO's in front of them as if they themselves had divine intervention on how to solve these issues, meanwhile in REAL TRADING LAND, we are close to breaking day-low-close and even intra-day-low cyclical lows in DOW and shortly in S&P.....

It is really working well for Washington and Obama, is it not?

Reminds me of my favourite qoute about this financial crisis: "The definiton of Insanity: Doing the same experiment over-and-over again expecting different results"

(* That quote about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is variously attributed to Albert Einstein (who I always believed was its author), Benjamin Franklin (AlterNet boss Don Hazen's pick), Rudyard Kipling, Rita Mae Brown and an ancient Chinese proverb)

Strategy:

S&P: Short - waiting for confirmation break down..... the new scandale in Texas shows us how naive we all are, and how this is FAR,FAR,FAR from over.... target minimum: 620/690....

Wrong: if we trade above 852.00......on close..

EURUSD: Breaking down as we speak.... Europe is falling apart and the dogmatic Trichet and his Merry Men will GUARANTEE we get ZERO pct interest rate (despite him denying it!)....

Looking for 1.2000 minimum - outragous call remains for 1.0000 - East Europe is heavy price to pay......Look for Basis-swaps in EURUSD, European banks NEEDS US dollar funding again...

TIPS: What a joke-- break-even @ 115 bps! (Inflation built-in)
I want some of that "crack" they are smoking --- There is NO INFLATION this year... the printing of the money only goes to displace some of the massive net wealth lost in the market.

We are 50% down on investors peak asset valuation!!!! That's a tidy 25-30 trln. US dollar of less wealth addv to this another 20 trln. US dollar of less credit (Average balance sheet leverage times loss provisions by banks (2 trln. conservatively..)

SELL TIPS!!!!!!! Especially as Gross and his happy campers in the yield-bubble-camp is long inflation and wrong....

OVERALL: Still got 75% in cash - 25% aggressively placed negatively in the market..

Took profit in Gold.. never liked momentum/consensus trades... could be wrong... but..square..

Off to sushi dinner..

Safe trading,

Steen

2 comments:

tooearly said...

everything you say is spot on, save for the undue praise of the great communicator who managed to massively grow government and the role of government while talking a good game

ld said...

No BS in your comments - and I completely agree!