Nothing much have changed since last report: The S&P is 30 points higher, euphoria is 50 pc higher - the world is in a good place and we will live happy forever after - that's the verdict of the market - We as an organisation is getting increased pressure from retail-level to increase the exposure, now that we are 30 pc up from the low - there is also growing believe that 2009 could be about de-coupling - I guess there are two types of de-couplings:
1. The people inside the circle of wagons: Banks, too big to fail industries, vs the rest
2. BRIC + VAT(the other periphals) relative to the rest of the world.
I am not smart enough to deal with all this analysis, so I am spending considerable time to construct- even reconstruct an "Explanation model" on the present market - ... a model which caters for SERIOUS INFRINGEMENT on Capitalism - a model where the exogenous risk factor in your model is no longer simple math - i.e discontinued price action - but discontinued political initiatives... which is totally random and often with negative long-term cost (i.e: lower growth through higher taxes, protectionisme or regulation changes).
Market is so positive its almost negative....but I will make full report on business, models et al later today... sorry I have been quiet but more than plenty to do in this new job...but no excuses...... later..steen
No comments:
Post a Comment