Wednesday, June 3, 2009

New markets? New blog?

Dear Investors,

Sorry for small delay in my updates, but shortly - I hope from Friday I will be fully back into the game of commenting and analyzing the market with the promised "models" but also with the usual angle of macro thoughts.

I am constructing a new blog as the old one was started and kept from my former Saxo Bank life. I am desperately trying to mitigate the issue of not bothering my subscribers with having to register yet again - but being the primitive type I am - I may have to do so anyway... the new blog URL is:

Give me a few days to complete it but rest assure starting next week things are back to normal.

On the market I'm 100 pct non-committed in every single market - I find the price action close to random, and despite the "200day moving average" breaks in commodity and stock markets.. I find all thoughts, valuations inflated and without merit - actually I would love you all to read Peter Thiel piece on long-term lack of productivity as it to me is one of the missing links in the present analysis of the market.

When I grew up (Yes, just after the war I know....) I remember how the bright future would be "paperless" - everything would be easier and productivity would rise forever - hmmm... we use more paper than ever and despite the fascination with internet and its ability to make us all "smarter" - one has to ask "are we really smarter"? Better ? Than we were 2o years ago? Alot of the smartness is really convenience - people are not less busy now - en-contraire - there is so little time to be reflective and thoughtfull today than ever before .....with the consquent loss of new frontiers, imagnition running wild - every thing is "priced control" - Resource allocation... we have mini-maxed everything into atoms - atoms which have not independent life or drift....

Remember the long term yield of stock market will have to be: Growth of the economy plus productivity gains and inflation ... Thiel argues there has not been any REAL PRODUCTIVITY gains since the late 1960s.. if so.. we have equation where long-term stock market gain = 0 (zero)inflation + o (zero) productivity + low growth... hmm... not my favourite cocktail, but then again I am simple, agnostic and uneducated independent trader :-)

Finally one of my favourite people of 2008 - David Einhorn were back this past week at the Ira W. Sohn Research Investment Conference, the annual hedge-fund conference where just last year he held forth with his now-famous takedown of Lehman Brothers, and Einhorn had a new target: The most over-rated politician in history: The O'- administration.... read on my friends:

See you in the new format Friday or over the weekend.

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen


Anonymous said...

Could you please post a link to the Thiel piece? Muchas gracias!

CV said...

Got you on the new blog ... I will update my links accordingly.

Unfortunately there is no (easy) way in which you can "switch" blogs without your readers having to migrate too and thus subscribe again. Somehow, they never figured out how to do this.