Wednesday Macro

Dear Investors,

Easter is coming - no change in positions....did small interview with Bloomberg this morning, although headline is slightly more "outragous" than my argument....and the interview stinks...but safes me from writing piece today.... http://tinyurl.com/dfqrow

Macro themes for me are now:

1. Deflation is coming to Europe - not only Switzerland (check link: Ireland imposes emergency cuts http://tinyurl.com/dan4z5


2. Unemployment and what it means for monetary policy, policy decisions, people quality of life, social unrest in not priced correctly.


3. Obama - is the most overrated President in history - its all smokes and mirrors ...... (please check link: A rookie President (http://tinyurl.com/dczxyz)


4. Banks in G-10 are insolvent - the more they claim not to be - the more they are...


5. Time is up....for Eastern Europe - only matter of time.....

Safe trading,

Steen

Back to basics....

Finally back from a busy travelling schedule ....... lots of ideas and thoughts... but for now I will once again do the easy thing and give you my interview done w. Bloomberg this week......

More here tomorrow/Monday.....


http://www.truveo.com/Investment-Strategy/id/229188125

Safe trading,

Steen

JPY is the turn upon us?

Consumer confidence coming back, Government upgraded consumption 1st time in 20 month, only...aber dabei being the exepcted lowering of CPI forecast from 0.5 to 0.1%... Seems agreement consumer key for future path...

5 yr Japanese Rates...



This is growing risk for JPY bears - add to this we have big shift in bias from SHORT JPY to neutral... I am beginning to believe in the JPY from here.. but I am merely farmers son from Denmark...

There is already major change in rate differentials. Below I plotted JPY 1yr fwd vs USD 1yr fwd....It also indicates top could be in place.. last few hours there has even been, wrongly, rumors that BOJ may hike earlier based on better outlook.

Note the big drop in the white line, which, non-tested, seems to lead the USDJPY relationship.

Finally, there is must read for people concerned about Stagflation:

Caroline Baum, Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ak6GESHlmjp0

Good luck,

Steen Jakobsen