Tactical note: Now from short back to Neutral

We have enjoyed a nice run from 935-00 to 835-00 (short the S&P) and hence we have taking almost all our positions of today except short EURUSD……we took off: Short gold, short eurchf, long bunds, short S&P and Stoxx50.. .

It is as much “money management” as a believe in that the market could bounce from here – but clearly the market is now closer aligned to us on the present themes:

1. China growth an issue – export/import numbers have now confirmed our view…•


2. Europe in trouble on credit (Portugal, Greece and Spain --- downgrades and potential downgrades)


3. Obama premium should not exist --- (our new catch line on this being: The Obama plan is like jump starting a car UP a hill!)……


4. January effect is a concept, and nothing more than a concept..

Upcoming events which we need to gauge before recomminting…

1. TARP – 2nd installment – by asking President Bush to ask for the money, Obama initiated a 15 days period inside which Congress needs to approve. Right now it looks there is Sunday vote(coming Sunday) but he is already facing rebellion from leading Democrats! (Click on Rebellion for link) http://tinyurl.com/a6ntaq


2. ECB announcement – despite ECB should go 50-75 bps tomorrow and at next meeting – they will go 25-50 bps, Pause, cut, Pause, cut, Pause… Trichet loves to hear himself talk, but the game is changing and fast.


3. Redemptions – January 15th widely rumoured to be “magic date” •


4. My friend and S&P guru Drew Baptiste of Morgan Stanley tells me 810/820 and 835 ish…. First tactical target(From Drew’s email) S&P Micro to Near Term (871.79 CASH 862.50 SPH9) Off the 942.00 rebound high (January 6th = current 2009 high), SPH9 is declining in an “impulsive fashion” to date (a still unfolding five-wave sequence). Yesterday and again today in the Globex session, SPH9 traded up to proposed micro term resistance at 875+-2 before turning down. The next level to further expose the downside is 855+-2 (5 week low), a break of which exposes a minor cluster at 838.50 / 836.00, ahead of what T.A.G. views as a near term ACTION / REACTION area at 820 / 810. T.A.G. will reassess the current Near Term Bear Mode above 877 / 880.
   

Having a nice profit in January drives this move, but post-analysis as seen above seems to support taking one or two days for thoughts.

Positions:

Cash @ 95% - short EURUSD

Safe trading,
Steen

Monday morning quarterbacking...

We saw horrible 7.2% unemployment, and market thought it was better than expected! Tell that to the 525.000 who yet again lost their jobs last month, please!

Fact is and remains, every single month for a long, long time there will be net loss of jobs and the impact on our mood, consumption, sex life and other important stuff has not even started to be realised by the always happy Wall Street crowd.

Each morning I download on my Ipod with:NBC Nightly news http://tinyurl.com/4skdwu, PBS Nightreport http://tinyurl.com/76qgop, ABC, Bloomberg, CNBC etc business podcasts and listen to them in my car......and every single morning I get the same message: Stimulus will work, they(the idiots in Congress, Fed and White House) are doing the right thing, this is all or nothing, corporate balancesheets are solid, market will not go down, January effect etc etc. --- all of it based on H.O.P.E none of it based on sound fundamementals analysis, opportunity costs or even funding costs.

From the perspective of being a simple hedge fund manager I always have to look at opportunity cost - could I be placed differently, what are my competition making......and hence last week decreased our cash (to 75%) in order to go short the market - something we did hesitantly as we felt market strongly believes in Obama and his merry men.

Being the cynic I am: Tell me, if all this Obama Circus was going to be good why is the market then down YTD ? Why did we never ever have a Election rally? Obama is a salesman, and where I come from we do not like salespeople - they talk too much and they crowd-you-out in the B.S they think they need to sell you on......(often not even understanding what they are selling in the process.....)

Furthermore lets talk about his plan ! He wants to spend 700-1.000 bln. US Dollar (this is US tax payers money) on infrastructure, alternative energy- but where is the solution for Medicare and Social Security? Actuarians on Medicare (http://tinyurl.com/7d3lzz) said last week that they would run out of money inside seven years - and this was before all the "depressions" the good people of the US labor market will get over the next six month.

I hate to be negative, but in a world so full of hope, and little realisme I want to warn of the clear and present danger of misinterpreting government money with good money. This will NOT work - the state can not allocate efficiently, neither can they increase productivity or intellectual capital (a contradiction in terms for public sector)........

Tactically we, as you know, we went short last week - we maintain this - we did however today take profit in Gold @ 824.80 from short @ 854.00 - we took profit on our 125.00 calls ( 77 ticks) vs 25 paid - and we took off short EURCHF & EURJPY ---- we maintain very large exposure to both short stock market and long JPY and USD... vs. EUR..... in options (striked 89.00 and 1.2800)......

Going into ECB I think IMF's stern warning this morning (http://tinyurl.com/983aoz) plus S&P talk of Spain downgrade on currency debt talks for (http://tinyurl.com/8wjgxt) will mean:

1. Italy will be downgraded next
2. ECB to realise this is NO game and what is needed is serious moves on monetary policy ....... now is the time for Europe to forget they do not have common Treasury and come up with serious MONETARY EASING in the face of collapsing demand.....here, there and everywhere....
   
   Safe trading - I hope for sake of most people I am wrong...
   
   Steen

An optimist stays up to see the New Year in. A pessimist waits to make sure the old one leaves.

Dear Investors,

Finally back into the rhytme of work again - must say holidays can be too long these days! Stunning weather, the market is happy and it looks like everyone got the same scenario for 2009 in place - tough first half-half then "flying through" 2nd half...I am not committed yet, having been one of the biggest bears for years, I must remain focused on seeing/understanding the catalysts for 2009, first up being the incoming President and next weeks Unemployment rate.

We have de facto ZIP (Zero Interest Policy) with all the risk of deflation ........the numbers looks bleak. It's almost certain 2009 will be best worst economic year since the 1930s, this does not, however, secure 2009 as a bad equity year per se... the balance will be between looking into the future and finding earnings, tracktions for credit and the extremely low interest rates on US debt or looking into the abyss...

A few things stands out as being in "riot" mode:

• Private Equity is "toast" - no hidding there. I really enjoy this piece by Michael Wolff from Vanity Fair:http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/02/wolff200902
• US yield @ ZERO percent - while the CDS on US Debt risis and credit rating overall falls ...? Makes no sense, there will be price to be paid..I am sincerely concerned about continued talks of Overseas Foreign Banks selling of both agencies and treasuries overall ( http://seekingalpha.com/article/110873-who-s-piloting-u-s-treasury-bonds-flight-to-safety)
• EURO strength... with major Euro sceptic Vaclav Klaus taking the presidency from the ever self-promoting Sakozy there could major change in the "economic tunes" of Europe....so far there seems to be this crazy ideas Europe is in a better place... not so.. EURUSD down to 1.000 will be one of the major moves this year.. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5430362.ece
• Volatility will continue to be high.... I expect major ranges to remain in place for this year..I am still in process of looking at technical levels, but my friend Jesper gave me headstart by point to these amazing charts, which tells a story most counters DO NOT want to engage in: http://dshort.com/ (please do yourself the honor of clicking on ALL the charts to get enlarged version..its simply....terrifying who little REAL RETURN stocks have given!)
• Believe in Obama and a planned economy....I still do not understand why a capitlist society just rolls over and accepts general government intervention at large. Major banks in the US, UK, Denmark and elsewhere preaches Capitalisme and reacts with Socialisme. The talk of this working must stop and now... 2009 clearly will show how infrastructure projects DOES NOT solve the worlds issue, that we need serious Destruction of Capital for this game to continue..........

Strategy

I will ignore what everyone else thinks.. and start on the basis of our economic models which show pain is coming fast and furious in the incoming data sets - this will lead to further policy responses of infrastructure and spending future generations money they dont have.

There will be EURO fatigque and it will come early on, as market finally sees how changing Sarkozy for Klaus is not constructive for EUR values - the data for Europe will show how dogmatic the ECB and its merry chairman Trichet has been and unemployment will hit 10% in Q2 2009.......Europe finally paying the full-price for the FULL STOP on consumption......

No one I know feels good about the future..... not even my always miserable friends, thats not a good sign for markets and even less so for the consumption and risk taking which needs to be reestablished.

End of the day when you take TRILLIONS aways in private credit and substitute it with public credit, then the smart guys/girls will recognize it for what it is..... crowding out of private capital.........so unless you vote Socialist 2009 can become Annus Horribilies for us all.

Safe trading,

Steen

Monday morning quarterbacking..again...

Watched some good old American football yesterday and Monday morning quaterbacking was certainly part of the speakers "game".......anyway kind of interesting how Bernie Madoff all of the sudden becomes front-line news, not as much because of the size, big as it is at 50 bln. $, but due to the fact no one seemed willing to "call the bluff".....It sad to see "innocent" people getting hurt, but this is really the part of cycle we are.... where EVERYONE who could/should pay pays...

Why did Madoff' game got called? Redemptions! It was not due diligence, it was not financial oversight, it was not even the SEC!

No, everyone thought this was cleaner than clean, despite the performance being a serious anormally not even copied by the great George Soros ......I believe the side-effects from this will be much bigger than market willing to acknowledge as it is another blow to the confidence of ANY FINANCIAL institution - if there is not any any confidence left, what is the "goodwill" on their balance then?

EUR is flying, of course, but we took profit too early as the game continues - I see the weaker US Dollar as the market call on the Ponzi-scheme directed by Bush, Paulson & Bernanke - some nice gentleman from Barclays sales-team claimed today they were doing a good job! I do not know if this was based on him being nervous about keeping his job or his firm believe that offering "public money" for private would work wonders.. ????

EUR is going to get US disease on growth..or lack of it.. but for now we are in a December EUR rally which could easily see 1.3700 and 1.4000 on-route to our tactical call change as of last week....... of 1.5000

Stock market - in broad based consolidation - got feeling with the US Dollar starting to weaken that post FOMC, there could be a price to paid for the stock market, but as some of you have commented maybe I am tooooo negative for my own good. Investment meeting tomorrow... we start @ 90% cash, rest in negative markets positions.....full disclosure tomorrow.

Strategy

Keep powder dry to post FOMC - our indicator/model shows increased risk of sell-off as credit spreads continues to expand, short-term fixed income remains bid, US Dollar weakens, and foreign press officers throw shoes after the Prez Bush.........Calling him "a dog" would be considered a compliment for him in the US I guess... ? ;-)

Valuation hard to figure out.....but I am looking forward to the investment meeting and to measure our conservative stance vs. the alternative "normal allocation" in the last week, month and quarter.

Main concern remains the turn-of-the-year in the money markets, and into Q1 my counterpart risk. I got nasty feeling Lehman will not be last major institution to "die"........if the hope connected to Obama does not materilalise soon....this could get ugly....

Safe trading till tomorrow,

Steen

The nine worst words: We are the government, we are here to help - Ronald Reagan

Today from Sydney - Australia - I am watchting the late US session from Hunter Valley, and it seems our final minimum target of 765.00 is within reach on deal/no deal package for auto-industry.

Radio silence & either you are pregnant or not

Why is it the world continue to have this "half-pregnant" atttitude to intervention? I was on small hedge fund panel the other day and made my usual simplistic presentation of the world, pointing out this crisis can be dealt with two ways:

1. The slow grinding, extended version, which is more expensive as errors upon errors are compounded to even bigger cost, when Mr. and Mrs Dirigisme Brown & Sarkozy continues to lead 'new' era state-capitalism where we selectively safe some individual stocks and industries due to 'national champion' status.... as said my Christmas wish remains that policy makers and politicians gets forced to do one or two year(s) of radio silence.

2. The hard and quick solution. Penalise bad behaviour and let industries die which have no competitiveness - this is the tough medicine but ultimately we need to own up to the fact that the only way to deal with this crisis will be to get saving rates up with the cost of serious dent on growth, stock markets and sentiment, but we need the micro economic agents (investors and consumers) to readjust their behaviour in order to get ahead of the crisis.

The policy makers and politicians creates so much 'noise' that the investors and consumers falsely continues to believe this crisis is something which can be dealt with from the top - and hence they delay their adjustment.

Having done my above 'spiel'; I had every single panel colleague go: I agree and disagree with what Steen just said! C'mon!

Maybe the 'good' news is that the crisis is now so total in impact that they(investors + consumers) will be forced to react despite the inadequate policy makers.

Evolution tends to happen from periods of stress rather than success, when we need to - we will respond to the challenges and this time is no different.

Interlectual capital, i.e our adoptiveness and brain power will take us through this period, but investors and consumers need to stop talking/acting and presenting themselves as believing in this "half pregnant" theory of intervention. Either you believe in it or not, you can't have it both ways.

The fundamentals for strong US dollar

I had lunch, as always, with Barclays Economist Peter Redward on Wednesday and we both had a stronger US dollar on our minds; Peter, who you should all follow, had a couple of interesting views:

1. The weaker oil improves US terms of trade, impacting trade and current account positively

2. The depression-consumer means they no longer using their credit cards, and with this the import is collapsing (seen the amount of cars stored at Long Beach?) - again improving the terms of trade.

3. US now got pretty much ZERO interest rates, but UK, ECB, Scandinavia, Australia, New Zealand still needs to deaccelerate (cutting rates to zero).... hence even from interest rate perspective there will be support.

It is interesting how a deal; being long US Dollar, have moved from being based on a balance sheet funding story to now being a real fundamental story (let me hasten to add that both Peter and I realise there is devaluation risk long-term, i.e 18-24 month from now on the US Dollar) as the world gets the US disease.

One of our Outragous Prediction could very well end up being EUR/USD in 0.9500 next year.

Strategy

Nothing changed our end:

Short NZDUSD, EURUSD, EURJPY, STOXX50 and GOLD. Long Fixed income and cash(75%). Applying our 25% into negative outlook views.

We may soon need to re-set our S&P500 call as 765.00 comes closer... the banking sector and mortgage sector across US and Europe is dying a slow and painful death. I am extremely bearish on banks at large for every day they are getting closer to the insolvency cheered on by a policy response which is so out of touch it makes one want to weep.

Safe trading,

Steen